stats decision making homework Essay Dissertation Research Help

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Take Home Midterm for Statistical Decision Making

Due November 29. 2016

The following model should be used for projecting the GDP by expenditure data to 2020 for your country:

1.   Production Function:

Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) = 1/b

Growth Rate of GDP =

If b<0 use ln(Y) = a + b year  to estimate Ry.

2.     Consumption Function:  C = a + b Y

If a<0 or b>1 or the t-value for b is not > 2 (absolute value) use the average propensity to consume from 2010 to 2014 instead of the equation.
  1. Import Function: M = a + b Y

If a<0 or b>1 or the t-value for b is not > 2 (absolute value) use the average propensity to import from 2010 to 2014 instead of the equation.

  1. Export Function: ln(X) = a + b year

Your report should be printed in a WORD document. It should follow the format shown for Australia which is below.

Please observe the decimal place conventions for each table as demonstrated below.

Name___________Campano______________Country Australia

  1. Production Function: 4 + 0.098021

(t=116.9)      (t=30.11)      R sq = .986

ICOR = 1/.098021 = 10.20188,

I/Y = average share from 2010 to 2014= 31.22853

Growth rate of Y = 31.22853/10.20188=3.061055

  1. Consumption Function: C= -41927.2 + 0.621904 Y

(t=-4.15)     (t=50.19)    R sq = .995

Wrong sign for “a” coefficient: C=.5764805Y substituted (average Propensity to consume from 2010 to 2014)

  1. Import Function: M = -244987 + 0.536144Y

(t=-10.3)     (t=18.5)  R sq = .963

Wrong sign for “a” coefficient: M=.2729894Y substituted (average Propensity to import from 2010 to 2014)

  1. Export Function: lnX =-51.9519 + 0031866 Year

(t=-12.4)     (t = 15.3)

Australia GDP by Expenditure 2005  US $
Year Y C G I X M Yt+1    ΣI ln X
2000 642915 356746 111993 137557 140097 103477 667752 137557 11.85009
2001 667752 369036 115492 149155 138968 104899 688314 286712 11.842
2002 688314 382881 118996 165935 139244 118743 716924 452647.6 11.84398
2003 716924 401594 124023 184858 140930 134482 739984 637505.9 11.85602
2004 739984 419616 128015 197887 145630 151164 762114 835392.8 11.88882
2005 762114 432967 132033 210886 149345 163117 790771 1046279 11.91401
2006 790771 453645 136239 225571 155151 179835 820047 1271850 11.95216
2007 820047 475741 140573 248925 160663 205856 834249 1520775 11.98707
2008 834249 475248 146610 247232 163476 198317 850620 1768007 12.00442
2009 850620 487278 149255 253278 171879 211070 870367 2021285 12.05454
2010 870367 507665 154326 267614 173474 232713 902813 2288899 12.06379
2011 902813 523454 160283 296537 182203 259663 925491 2585435 12.11287
2012 925491 533495 160255 300114 193085 261459 949051 2885550 12.17089
2013 949051 544710 164110 291823 204251 255844 975012 3177373 12.2271
2014 975012 554708 167445 286390 217897 251427 12.29178
Projected
2015 1004858 579281 175411 313802 210679 274316 12.25809
2016 1035617 597013 180408 323408 217500 282712 12.28996
2017 1067318 615288 185546 333308 224543 291366 12.32182
2018 1099989 634122 190828 343510 231813 300285 12.35369
2019 1133660 653533 196260 354025 239319 309477 12.38555
2020 1168362 673538 201844 364862 247068 318951 12.41742
Australia Shares Of GDP
Year Y C G I X M
2000 100 55.5 17.4 21.4 21.8 16.1
2001 100 55.3 17.3 22.3 20.8 15.7
2002 100 55.6 17.3 24.1 20.2 17.3
2003 100 56.0 17.3 25.8 19.7 18.8
2004 100 56.7 17.3 26.7 19.7 20.4
2005 100 56.8 17.3 27.7 19.6 21.4
2006 100 57.4 17.2 28.5 19.6 22.7
2007 100 58.0 17.1 30.4 19.6 25.1
2008 100 57.0 17.6 29.6 19.6 23.8
2009 100 57.3 17.5 29.8 20.2 24.8
2010 100 58.3 17.7 30.7 19.9 26.7
2011 100 58.0 17.8 32.8 20.2 28.8
2012 100 57.6 17.3 32.4 20.9 28.3
2013 100 57.4 17.3 30.7 21.5 27.0
2014 100 56.9 17.2 29.4 22.3 25.8
Projected
2015 100 57.6 17.5 31.2 21.0 27.3
2016 100 57.6 17.4 31.2 21.0 27.3
2017 100 57.6 17.4 31.2 21.0 27.3
2018 100 57.6 17.3 31.2 21.1 27.3
2019 100 57.6 17.3 31.2 21.1 27.3
2020 100 57.6 17.3 31.2 21.1 27.3

Australia
Year Y C G I X M
2009 1.96 2.53 1.80 2.45 5.14 6.43
2010 2.32 4.18 3.40 5.66 0.93 10.25
2011 3.73 3.11 3.86 10.81 5.03 11.58
2012 2.51 1.92 -0.02 1.21 5.97 0.69
2013 2.55 2.10 2.41 -2.76 5.78 -2.15
2014 2.74 1.84 2.03 -1.86 6.68 -1.73
projected
2015 3.06 4.43 4.76 9.57 -3.31 9.10
2016 3.06 3.06 2.85 3.06 3.24 3.06
2017 3.06 3.06 2.85 3.06 3.24 3.06
2018 3.06 3.06 2.85 3.06 3.24 3.06
2019 3.06 3.06 2.85 3.06 3.24 3.06
2020 3.06 3.06 2.85 3.06 3.24 3.06

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